BAGHDAD. In drawers and footlockers, servicemembers
in Iraq are banking on the future by hoarding millions
of Iraq's year- old currency, the dinar.
Many suspect the dinar's precipitous drop in the past
decade could mean a huge rebound ahead. Each dinar was
once worth a few dollars; they are now worth a fraction
of a penny apiece.
If post-war Kuwait is any example, they might be
right: A Kuwaiti dinar was valued at a about a dime after the war. Each
now brings in $3.40.
Still, that's a big gamble, financial experts say.
And Iraq is no Kuwait, a small, politically stable country
with massive oil reserves.
Insurgents, a nascent government and extreme
poverty still plague Iraq.
If only the country turns around, said one investor,
Staff Sgt. Matthew Gadbois, a Vermont National Guardsman
with the 1st Battalion, 86th Field Artillery at Camp
Victory, Baghdad.
That's the gamble, adds another, Sgt. Richard Couture,
from the same unit.
The two, and most soldiers they know, have picked up
a few hundred thousand dinars' equivalent to a couple
hundred dollars. They know others who have bought considerably
more.
If the value jumps just a bit, from 1/16th of a penny
to 1/8th of a penny for example, investors double their
money. If it jumps to a few cents, they can start paying
off mortgages, the goal for Gadbois.
He learned of the scheme from a fellow soldier
who, he adds, likes to gamble.
I was skeptical at first, Gadbois says. But it's like
playing the stock market. If it takes off, great.
Iraq has a few attributes that make it attractive.
The most obvious is oil, and the fact that it could blossom into a
functional country.
Still the government could overspend and weaken the economy
despite its oil. And there is always inflation to dampen
the already low value.
While that is a nice idea, soldiers probably shouldn
t be currency speculators, said Michael A. Goldstein,
associate professor of finance at Babson College in
Massachusetts in an e-mailed statement. All sorts of
things could happen, especially inflation in dinars.
This is likely a sucker bet if the major investment
banks aren't speculating, neither should your average
GI.
He points to the example in Eastern Europe after
the Cold War. Gains in currency value were eroded by inflation as the
country developed.
One of the easiest ways to finance government expenditures
is just to print more money and spend it. When the government
prints more money, it causes inflation, he says.
It might also be difficult or expensive to
off-load the dinars down the road. The few banks that buy foreign
currency in the States charge fees for doing so, he says.
Many soldiers recognize the gamble and are
prepared to wait years to see what happens.
It's not really a big investment, says Capt. Scott
Moreland, currently serving with the 1st Battalion,
185th Armor Regiment of the California National Guard
in Camp Scania, Iraq. Most of us have thrown a few hundred
bucks at it to see what happens. Your odds are better
than they are in Vegas.
He adds that Department of Defense savings
programs are probably a better bet.
Military investors should note that U.S. customs
laws require them to declare if they bring home more than the
equivalent of $10,000 in any currency.
And post offices in theater forbid mailing
currency home. But there is no Department of Defense regulation to stop
them, according to military officials.
The get-rich-quick idea isn't limited to those serving
in Iraq.
On the auction Web site eBay, dinars sell for
marginally more than the going rate. A recent sale collected $75 for
100,000 dinars. Under the current exchange rate, that amount should
cost about $68.
Scores of vendors online have been set up just to
sell dinars. In one case, a million dinars, worth about $685, was on
sale for $895.
One of these sites sums up the efforts in its
name: BetOnIraq.com.
Its Web site adds a caveat: We sell genuine currency
that, in our opinion, stands a good chance of appreciating
in value. We can offer no guarantees of a return on
investment.
Goldstein adds that as a gamble the idea isn't crazy,
but it's certainly not a wise investment.
Short answer don't do this with more money than you
usually bet in one evening's poker game